.
Building Houses People Can Afford |
| [Reprinted from a
collection of essays, Headline News, Science Views,
published by National Academy Press, 1991. This essay written 31
December 1989. Ezra Ehrenkrantz, who died 29 September 2001, was at
the time this essay appeared president of Ehrenkrantz, Eckstut and
Whitelaw, an architectural firm in New York] |
Why is housing so expensive when televisions, computers and many other
goods cost relatively less now than they did before?
Between 1970 and 1987, the consumer price index tripled, but the price
of clothing and telephone services only doubled. The median sales price
of a privately owned one-family house, on the other hand, jumped from
$23,400 to $104,500 - a breathtaking increase of 447 percent.
Breathtaking and, for people trying to purchase their first home,
heart-stopping. Only 20 percent of Americans now earn enough to purchase
a new house at market rates without a trade-in, a dramatic drop from 50
percent two decades ago. For millions of people, the dream of owning a
home has faded.
The main difference between houses and televisions, of course, is that
houses require land, which is in fixed supply with rapidly escalating
costs. Housing prices also are affected by interest rates, local
business conditions and other factors that are hard to ameliorate.
But one factor that can and should be changed is the outdated way we
build houses. Modern building techniques could reduce the cost of a new
home from, say, $100,000 to $90,000, or even less. That is not a huge
difference, but every dollar counts, particularly when one computes
interest costs over the life of a mortgage.
Most builders in our country now produce houses one by one with
conventional materials instead of taking advantage of mass production
techniques and newer technology. They install bathrooms one fixture at a
time rather than using prefabricated units with the lights, toilet, sink
and tub already in place. They do the same for kitchens and make
inadequate use of breakthroughs in composite materials, microelectronics
and robotics.
The lowly two-by-four remains the primary construction material, even
though a growing demand for wood products has caused it to become
scarcer and more expensive. Few American home builders have thought
seriously about replacing two-by-fours, a sharp contrast with the
situation overseas, where many builders are experimenting actively with
alternative materials and systems.
The failure of the construction industry to innovate threatens its own
future in the same way that technological complacency hurt U.S.
automobile and steel manufacturers. In some states, segments of the
construction industry are now dominated by foreign companies.
For frustrated home buyers who lack the money even for modest "starter"
homes, the situation is already critical. It will probably get worse so
long as housing follows the characteristics of a service industry rather
than a manufacturing industry. The aging of the baby boom generation and
other trends may provide some relief, but low productivity will keep
many Americans in rental units instead of their own homes. Those at the
bottom of the economic ladder, in particular, will face rising rents and
fewer viable options.
Home builders are not inherently averse to new technology. However,
there now is little incentive within the industry to invest in
technological innovations. Developing new technologies is expensive,
requiring not only basic research but also material testing,
construction of prototypes, code approval, tooling for production and
marketing of the final products. Any one of these activities may take
several years.
As things stand, the would-be innovator has no way of knowing what
interest rates, the money supply and other conditions essential to
success in the housing market will be like when the product is finally
ready. As a result, over the past 15 years the building industry has
tended to make minor changes to existing products rather than invest in
true innovations.
For the sake of millions of would-be home buyers, this needs to change.
One of the best ways the industry could become more innovative is
through new public and private programs that spur fresh concepts and new
products. Test beds should be established to try out appropriate ideas,
facilitate testing and speed regulatory approval of innovations. To
succeed, experimental programs would need to protect prototype designs
and a limited number of housing units from frivolous lawsuits, and to
disseminate their results widely. Instead of wringing our hands
endlessly about housing costs, it's time we tackled each of the
components of that cost and, with respect to technology, became more
creative about supporting research and development. Americans need
houses they can afford.
|