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| The Natural
Rate of Interest |
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| [Reprinted
from a Land-Theory online discussion, May 15, 1999] |
The Austrian economist Eugen von Bohm-Bawerk refuted the
fructification and reproductive theories of interest held by Henry
George and others.
Bohm-Bawerk argued that if the interest rate were zero,
then seeds would sell for as much as grown plants (minus the labor
needed to grow them). If grown plants had a higher price, it would be
profitable to buy the seeds, so the price of seeds would be bid up until
the profit was gone. So the greater value of grown plants over seeds
does not determine the rate of interest, since the effect would be
rather to bid up the price of seeds.
Alas, Bohm-Bawerk omitted the land-rent cost of moving
through time. When you work out the math, if the interest rate, "i",
falls to zero, it raises land rent, which is also part of the cost of
passing through time, so the price of seeds does not rise to equal the
harvest value of timber (which would be absurd, obviously). Foresters
had already worked this out, in what was and is called the "Faustmann
Formula." Glad to supply details, or refer you to my monograph,
Concepts of Financial Maturity of Timber.
Austrian economists instead presented the time-preference
theory of interest, in which it is the preference for present-day goods
over future goods that creates a discount in the future, which is the
rate of interest. This became accepted by mainstream theory, to some
degree, as expressed by Irving Fisher in his landmark work, The Theory
of Interest (1930). George at least recognized that pure interest has to
do with time, and that it is a natural market phenomenon and not a
problem.
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