.
| Our Unsound
Monetary System and Measures for Reform |
| [Reprinted from The
Commercial and Financial Chronical, 20 November, 1958] |
California businessman contends the banking reforms of the
1930s have not removed the precarious danger inherent in our fractional
banking system and that a return to 100% reserves -- as propounded by
the late Irving Fisher -- is imperative. To save our free enterprise
system, Mr. de Fremery also advocates giving to the government the
exclusive right to issue money, making such money non-convertible,
permitting all exchange rates to fluctuate freely, and overhauling our
system of raising public revenue. The author finds no evidence that we
can prevent another financial panic resulting from the "creation
and lending of fictitious deposits," sees scant assurance in
F.D.I.C., states our gold reserve is hopelessly inadequate, and believes
our people mast first be told the truth in order to achieve reform.
When Paul M. Millians, Vice-President of Commercial Credit Company,
spoke before the 40th International Consumer Credit Conference in San
Francisco on July 19, 1954, he made the following revealing statement:
"Most of the 17 major depressions in American history
have been money panics.
They were marked by a scramble of bank
depositors to withdraw funds; restricted deposits; restricted credit;
forced liquidation of bank loans; and forced liquidation of
commodities."
A very similar statement was made by J. W. Gilbart -- one of the
leading bankers in England during the latter half of the 19th Century:
"It has been remarked that panics recur at regular
intervals of about ten years each; nor can this be wondered at, seeing
that the years 1825, 1837, 1847, 1857, and 1866 have, from various
causes, been marked by the catastrophes so named. Judging by this
recurrence of disasters at an apparently fixed period, It is not
surprising that in the popular mind there seems to be a belief that a
cycle exists, fated to bring In its train ruin to the monetary world
and to millions outside of it. The dominant causes of the panics of
the years specified, and their distinguishing characters, differ in
some essential particulars. In one feature, indeed, they are all alike
-- the unreasoning fear which heralds, accompanies, accelerates and
sometimes produces them." (J. W. Gilbart,The History,
Principles, and Practice of Banking, Vol. 2, P. 334.)
These two men stated indisputable facts that are known to all who have
a knowledge of business cycle theory. It is only the interpretation of
those facts that leads to controversy among economists. One group claims
that our banking system is basically sound and that panics are either
due to causes originating outside the system or to abuses of that
system. The other group claims that there is an inherent defect in our
banking system that makes these panics inevitable. This latter group of
economists has grown to such an extent that when the late Irving Fisher
took a poll of the members of the American Economic Association in 1947
to determine how many of them favored reform of our banking system so as
to remove the basic cause of bank panics, over 1,100 of them signified
their approval -- many of them well-known economists and heads of their
departments at their respective universities.
Main Cause for Bank Panics
It is difficult to understand why anybody should be in doubt as to the
main cause of bank panics. When men engage in a "run on a bank,"
they do it for a very obvious reason. They are afraid their money isn't
there. They're afraid that if they don't withdraw the money they have a
right to withdraw, they may lose it altogether. And their fear is
perfectly justified under a system of fractional reserve banking. Their
money is not there -- nor is it anywhere. Only a small fraction of their
money has an actual physical existence. All the rest of it is nothing
but book entries against which the depositors can draw checks.
"How do the book entries come into existence?" you ask.
Our banks have the privilege of creating such book entries and lending
them to the public so long as they maintain a certain minimum cash
reserve. Hence, the name "fractional reserve banking." And in
proportion as banks exercise this privilege of creating deposits and
leading them, and as checks are drawn against these imaginary deposits
to pay for goods and services and then deposited in other banks, the
total amount of imaginary deposits grows. This means our banks become
less and less liquid, i.e., less able to pay their depositors in cash if
called upon to do so on a large scale. The more illiquid the banking
system becomes -- the more inevitable it is that a loss of confidence
will occur. When it finally occurs it takes either the form of a
financial panic, or a contraction in business resulting from the fear
that a panic or "credit crisis" may occur, or a combination of
both as in the period 1929-33.
The fact that the National Bank Holiday didn't occur until 1933 has led
many people to believe that the Great Depression which was heralded by
the stock market crash in 1929 was not caused by the banking system. But
as early as 1928 the financial advisers of some of our large
corporations were getting increasingly uneasy about the weak condition
of our banks. Faced with the likelihood of another financial crisis, the
only sensible thing for them to do was to advise the curtailment of
capital expenditures, a liquidation of inventories, and a reduction of
indebtedness to the banking system. These very actions, of course,
hastened the thing that was feared.
But the fears were certainly justified -- as later events proved: 1,352
banks suspended payments in 1930, and 2,294 suspended payments in 1931.
Many of those who hadn't foreseen this financial trouble or who were
lulled to sleep by Hoover's repeated assertions that the Federal Reserve
System was panic proof, lost their businesses.
An economist for one of our largest banks, when confronted with the
foregoing explanation of what it is that causes a loss of confidence at
the height of each boom, attempted to disprove this theory with the
following argument: The fact that our large corporations did not
withdraw their bank deposits when they first began liquidating and
curtailing operations is clear evidence they did not fear a collapse of
the banking system. Had they feared such a collapse, he reasoned, the
first thing they would have done is withdraw their deposits.
The answer to this is that for every dollar of bank deposits held by
these corporations, there were hundreds of dollars in inventories that
had to be liquidated. Their primary concern, therefore, was to liquidate
their inventories before trouble with the banks developed. If they were
so rash as to withdraw their bank deposits when they first anticipated
trouble with the banks, they would have taken great losses because of
their inability to liquidate large inventories produced at an inflated
price and wage level.
Are Things Different Today?
Defenders of this unsound system of banking hasten to assure us today
that things are different. They claim that the banking reforms made
since 1933 have removed the possibility of another collapse such as we
had in 1933. They point in particular to the Federal Deposit Insurance
Corporation as a safeguard against wholesale bank failures. What they
overlook, of course, is the fact that the basic weakness in our banking
system still exists. We still operate on the assumption that the process
of creating imaginary deposits is sound. The F.D.I.C. is nothing but a
gimmick designed to bolster our confidence and trust in an untrustworthy
system. Consider these facts: At the end of 1956, the savings and demand
deposits of banks associated with the F.D.I.C. totaled over $218
billion. About $120 billion of this consisted of deposits that were
under $10,000 and, therefore, insured by the F.DJ.C. Now, consider this:
There was only about $30 billion in currency in the country -- much
of it outside the banking system -- and the F.D.I.C. had less than $2
billion in assets, of which only $4,221,686 was in cash. (Statistics
taken from the Report of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation,
December, 1956.)
Of course the Federal Reserve System has the power to increase the
amount of Federal Reserve Notes. But this power is limited by the amount
of gold reserves held by the system. And gold, being an international
commodity, has a way of flowing out of the country just when it is most
needed ... in fact we have lost over $1% billion of that metal since
Jan. 1, 1958.
Holds Gold Reserve Is Inadequate
Much nonsense has been written about the adequacy of our gold reserve.
But as a matter of cold fact, our gold reserve is hopelessly inadequate
should any trouble develop. In this connection it would be well for us
to heed the warning contained in the June 27 bulletin issued by the
Bankers Trust Co. This bulletin was devoted to an analysis of the gold
outflow that has been taking place since the first of the year and still
is taking place. Although they gave many reasons for believing we have
nothing to worry about,
all their soothing arguments were negated by the last two paragraphs
which read as follows:
"One real hazard to the dollar could develop from the side of the
Federal budget. Should this country enter an era of large and
uncontrollable budget deficits, the inflationary implications for
the domestic scene are very likely to be compounded by uncertainty
abroad regarding tine ability and intent of the United States to
maintain the international purchasing power of the dollar over the long
run. Under such conditions, it is not inconceivable that foreign funds
could be withdrawn from this country in greater amounts than seem likely
under present circumstances, that the outflow could be enhanced by
strong speculative movements, and that the consequent inroads of the
gold reserve could assume disturbing proportions.
"Even if acute fiscal emergencies are avoided, the trend of recent
years indicates yet another basic hazard over the long term, namely,
that the rise in production costs in the United States may eventually
price more and, more of our exports out of world mar kets. In the past,
this prospect has been obscured by the parallel and generally more rapid
progress of inflation among other leading nations. However, various
countries abroad has recently demonstrated their determination to bring
the inflationary boom under control and adjust their economies to the to
the disciple of the balance of international payments. Should we fail to
cope with rising costs and prices in the United States, our balance of
payments could hardly escape deterioration over the years."
(Italics added.)
Is there any doubt in anybody's mind as to whether we have entered "an
era of large and uncontrollable budget deficits"? Senator Byrd has
certainly made this point, clear. And the migration of capital that is
being invested in foreign countries is certainly clear evidence that
we're going to have steadily increasing trouble with our balance of
payments. So there shouldn't be much doubt that the inroads on our gold
reserve will assume "disturbing proportions."
Can We Prevent a Financial Panic?
How can any man acquainted with these facts -- and our largest
corporations have such men on their staffs -- help but lose confidence
in the future? Can you blame these men for advising the curtailment of
capital expenditures and the liquidation of inventories as has been done
in the last 18 months? As the law now stands, nothing can prevent
another financial panic. We are just as prone to another financial,
debacle as we were in 1929 when President Hoover begged us not to lose
confidence in our banks. We were assured that the Federal Reserve System
was designed to prevent a collapse of our banking system. We learned
otherwise. And today we are being assured that the F.D.I.C. will prevent
another collapse such as the one we had in 1933. But there is no sound
basis for so believing.
The time has come for us to face the fact that there is no such thing
as a sound method of insuring deposits in a banking system that operates
on unsound principles.
The creation and lending of fictitious deposits is not a sound
method of banking.
Some people believe it is against the public interest to expose the
inherent weakness of our banking system. I think it is against the
public interest to keep people in ignorance of such things. Large
financial interests have always been well aware of the defects in our
banking system. They had to be to survive. They know how weak and
unstable the system still is. Not only do they know how to protect,
themselves from the economic fluctuations caused by our credit banking
system but many of them know how to profit by these fluctuations. Should
plain citizens be denied the same insight?
Reform by Telling the Truth
The only hope of reforming this basically unsound money mechanism is to
let our citizens know the truth. They alone have the political strength
to bring reform. Unless the voters learn the truth about our financial
system, they will sanction ever-increasing government controls of our
economy as it continues to break down because of an unreliable money.
I can be accused, of course, of shouting "Fire!" in a crowded
theatre. But I am not shouting
and there is a fire. There is a
blaze that has been steadily burning away the foundation of our free
enterprise system for 300 years. The spread of Communism, which all
thinking people rightly fear, has been fostered very largely by our
failure to put out this fire. As a matter of fact, Marx's writings
received their first prominence four years after England made a
half-hearted attempt to correct the basic weakness in her banking
system. Under the Bank Act of 1844, banks gave up the right to extend
credit by issuing notes that, were not backed by gold. But they retained
the right to extend credit by creating deposits against which checks
could be drawn. Naturally the credit crises continued -- 1847, 1857,
1866 -- and in the meantime full blame for the continuing cycle of
business activity was gradually shifted from the banking system to the
business world itself.
Now it is time to complete the reform that was started in 1844. And
that is the basic premise behind Professor Fisher's proposal which
received the support of so many economists throughout our country in
1947. He suggested converting our present system of fractional reserve
banking into a system of 100% reserves. This can be done by converting
our billions of dollars of imaginary deposits into actual deposits. And
to keep our banking system on this sound basis we would have to take
away the bankers' privilege of creating any further imaginary deposits.
Only the Government to Issue Money
If more money is needed in our country, and we'll need more as our
population expands, it should be the function of government -- and
government alone -- to provide the new money -- not the function of a
private banking system to provide us with imaginary deposits. Bankers
should confine their lending activities to the lending of actual savings
placed with them for that purpose and
not subject to withdrawal during the period of the loan. They
should no longer be allowed to lend their credit.
Having effected this reform, we need then only provide -- by
Constitutional amendment -- that the supply of money per capita
existing immediately after this reform has been made shall henceforth be
maintained. When a further increase in our population necessitates a
proportional increase in our supply of money, then Congress can
authorize that increase as provided for in the amendment to our
Constitution. In the words of Alexander Del Mar -- one of the most
scholarly and astute monetary historians that ever lived: "The more
exact the limits of the volume of money are defined in the law of each
State the more equitable will it become in its operation upon prices and
the dealings between man and man." (The Science of Money,
P. 129.)
Those who would like a more detailed analysis of how our banking system
can be put on a sound basis can get this in my acticle, "Banking
and Monetary Reforms to Preserve Private Enterprise," (The
Commercia land Financial Chronicle, June 7, 1956, P. 13).
Favors Going Off Gold
The question is often raised: "What about gold? Would our new
money be convertible into gold at the request of our citizens and/or
foreign bankers?"
Certainly not. The idea that our money has to be convertible into gold
in order to maintain its value is a superstition foisted upon us by the
vested interests in gold. And those who don't think such a vested
interest exists should heed the following statement made by the National
City Bank Bulletin for June, 1940:
"A second important reason why gold is unlikely to
lose its value is that not only the United States, but other countries
as well, have large vested interests in gold. The British Empire alone
accounts for nearly half the gold output of the world, and in many
other countries gold production is an important national asset. These
countries would not look with favor upon the displacement of gold as a
monetary metal; and even in the event of political changes resulting
from the war these vested interests will remain though possibly
shifted to other national jurisdictions." (p. 70.)
Another superstition foisted upon the public is that an expanding
foreign trade among freedom-loving nations necessitates having
currencies convertible into gold. Exactly the opposite is true. (One of
the best books on this subject is International Monetary Issues
by C. R. Whittlesey). The periodic breakdown of trade -- both national
and international -- that has had such disastrous consequences on the
political and economic development of all countries is a direct result
of unstable currencies which, in turn, were an inevitable result of
having currencies supposedly convertible into gold on demand when, in
fact, that much gold didn't exist.
The greatest boon to the development of world trade would be to divorce
all currencies from gold and allow all exchange rates to fluctuate
freely so as to correctly reflect changes in the amount of imports and
exports of each country.
Overhaul Our Reserve Raising System
Before closing, I would like to point out that banking reform alone
will not save our free enterprise system. We also need a complete
overhaul of our system of raising public revenue. Both of these reforms
must eventually be made if freedom is to survive. Neither of these
reforms is a panacea -- nor are both of them together a panacea. Our
panacea is freedom. And a free economy cannot be expected to function
properly without a sound monetary system and a sound method of raising
public revenue.
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