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| Urban
Expansion -- Will It Ever Stop? |
| [An excerpt from an
article in the Department of Agriculture's 1958 publication Land,
reprinted in the Henry George News, November, 1958] |
WHEN you walk down Main Street in any large city, each step
takes you past several thousand dollars' worth of frontage. Residential
lots in respectable established neighborhoods sell for 50 dollars to 250
dollars a foot and for more than 500 dollars a foot along a few gold
coasts. Apartment sites average higher, going above one thousand dollars
along Lake Shore Drive in Chicago. Slum sites are often held at fancy
prices because of an expectation of future industrial, commercial, or
public demand. Some subsidiary shopping districts sell for one thousand
dollars a foot. The best industrial sites in large central cities
command well over 100 thousand dollars an acre.
Urban prices have a baleful influence on farming. The dirt farmer has
struggle enough financing title to lands priced by their anticipated
income from agriculture alone. Urban prices push him out of the market
completely. Landholders near cities must be speculators as well as
farmers.
Often they are not farmers at all. High-priced lands in areas with
urban possibilities tend to gravitate to those who have the financial
power to wait.
Federal income-tax laws tend to aggravate the dirt farmer's
disadvantage, for they make speculative gains especially attractive to
those in higher tax brackets.
To qualify for capital gains treatment, the speculator must establish
that he is not "in the real-estate business," but is a passive
"investor," neither improving land for sale nor soliciting
buyers. Or he may establish that he is "using the land in his trade
or business" (other than real estate).
Still better, if it is his residence that he sells, and he puts the
proceeds into a new residence within the year, the entire gain is tax
free - and with a little effort a commuter may learn to "reside"
over a considerable investment.
Best of all, one who buys land years ahead of his own needs never pays
a tax on the rise of value so long as he does not sell - something many
large corporations, with huge reserves "for expansion," have
little expectation of doing. Wilbur Steger, writing in the National Tax
Journal for September 1957, estimates that 90 percent of all capital
gains were thus left tax free from 1901 to 1949.
A striking aspect of today's cities is their rapid outward thrust. The
urban expansion bears critical watching, however.
Cities, even central cities, are not using nearly the land they already
contain. These undigested pieces are of negative value to the city
itself. Cities exist to bring people together. Vacant and underdeveloped
lands keep them apart and thus destroy part of the city's basic
resources: Cheap distribution and easy access.
Just how wide and how empty these undeveloped territories are is
startling to discover. The New York engineering firm of Parsons,
Brinckerhoff, Hall & MacDonald surveyed land uses and potentialities
in connection with its 1953-1955 report to the San Francisco Bay Area
Rapid Transit Council. It found ample suitable acreage in the Bay area
for the entire projected 1990 population of the whole State of
California: 22 million to 31 million people - 7 to 10 times the Bay
area's population of 3 million in 1953-1955. This is allowing ample
areas for recreation and industry.
In the crowded city of San Francisco itself, the California Water
Resources Board survey showed 23 percent of the usable land was
developed in 1955.
The Water Resources Board bulletin said that 65 percent of the suitable
land was undeveloped for urban use in the Los Angeles hydrographic unit
- that is, in the city of Los Angeles, the immediately surrounding
cities, and the more or less urbanized unincorporated lands.
Another 1955 survey, Bulletin 87 of the Regional Planning Association
of New Jersey, New York, and Connecticut, reported the following
percentages of suitable land undeveloped in some of the counties of
metropolitan New York: Bronx, 9 percent; Kings (Brooklyn), 44 percent;
Richmond, 32 percent; Hudson, 21 percent ; Bergen, 54 percent;
Westchester, 63 percent; Fairfield, 81 percent. For the entire
22-county, tri-state metropolitan region, dotted from end to end with
fragments of New York City and laced with transportation and utility
lines, only 21 percent of the suitable land, or 16 percent of the gross
land area, was developed for urban use.
Here are the makings of a cycle of everexpansion that should come to
light when speculators holding the better lands try to find markets.
Urban land prices are uneconomically high - the "scarcity" of
urban land is an artificial one, maintained by the holdout of vastly
underestimated supplies in anticipation of vastly overestimated future
demands. I think this uneconomical price level imposes a correspondingly
uneconomcial growth pattern on expanding cities. High land prices
discourage building on vacant lands best situated for new development
and divert resources to building highways, utility networks, and whole
new complexes of urban amenities so as to provide and serve substitute
urban lands further out-substitutes for something that is already in
long supply. Not only is this pattern wasteful of time, steel, cement,
gasoline, and good farmland; it founds national prosperity on the film
of a land bubble.
And so it would seem wise for policymakers to set about lowering asking
prices for urban land. But here they meet a dilemma. What stimulates
building is not falling prices, but the end result of the fall - low
prices.
Policymakers are tempted to put off the day of reckoning, to tolerate
and, in fact, actively support high land prices. But the irony of such
policies is that they stimulate development of still more substitute
urban lands, and set the stage for more drastic ultimate collapse.
There seems one obvious escape from this dilemma. As it must be done,
do it quickly. Bring land prices down fast, and get it over with.
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