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| [Reprinted from The
Gargoyle, August-September, 1977] |
The American dollar is once more under attack. Such is the view put
forth before the public when the exchange rate of the dollar for the
deutschemark and Swiss franc hit record lows, as well as near-record
lows against the Japanese yen. It was even weak against such weak
currencies as the Italian lira and the French franc.
The terminology used would lead one to suppose that a war was in
effect,, and for some reason the United States dollar was being
attacked. But actually such is far from being the case.
The reason the dollar price in terms of foreign currencies has fallen
is because of the tremendous increase in the number of dollars which
have, in effect, been printed. M1, which in economic jargon, consists of
bank deposits and currency in the hands of the public exploded in April,
jumping to a 21% seasonally adjusted annual rate. 1C, which consists of
bank deposits, currency in the hands of the public, plus time deposits
in commercial banks rose at a 14% rate.
For the first half of the year M1 registered a. 6-1/2% seasonally
adjusted annual rate of growth while M2 increased at a 9.9% rate. Of the
two indicators of how much so-called money is in existance M2 is
probably the more important. At this writing M1 is in the neighborhood
of $322 billion while M2 is over $765 billion.
Such figures are so enormous as to be meaningless. The average American
doesn't even know what the so-called money supply is nor what amounts
are, and probably could not care less. But he is concerned over the drop
in the purchasing power of the dollar. It is doubtful, however, if he
connects the amount of money issued with the drop in what his dollar
will buy.
He does have, however, some vague comprehension that in Latin American
countries they print so much money that it buys less and less. Since
these countries tend to increase their currencies at a 20 to 30% clip,
it may cause him to think twice when he learns that in April the money
supply jumped at a 21% increase. True this was just for one month, but
it signifies that the government is pursuing a dangerous program.
One of the most sensitive measures which indicates whether a currency
is weak or strong is its foreign exchange rate, which is why the
sophisticated watch it quite closely. It has been argued that the drop
in the exchange rate was due to the trade deficit, that is the deficit
between imports and exports.
We have imported so much more than we "exported, largely petroleum
products, that it is expected the rate deficit will be $27 billion by
the end of the year, which is astounding. The overall balance will
probably be a deficit of $14 billion as some of the money returns to
America in the form of investments here in business and securities.
This deficit merely reflects the increase in the money supply in
America, but unfortunately that is not recognized. Politicians, in
particular, ignore the true reason for the drop in the exchange rate and
the trade deficit partly because they do not know the real reason but
also partly because if they acknowledged it, they would have to do
something about it. And one thing they do not wish to do is to stop the
growth! of the money supply.
The reason for this is that it is supposed to keep interest rates down,
which should encourage business to borrow to construct plants and
equipment, which should increase employment. Also consumers are
encouraged to borrow for purchase of homes and goods, all of which is
supposed to reduce unemployment.
The monetary authorities are well aware of the danger of constantly
increasing the rate of growth of money. For years it was about 2%, well
below that which is supposed to be indicative of how a sound currency
should behave. Now the politicians consider a 6 or 7% rate of increase
low, and are constantly fighting with the Federal Reserve System to
increase the rate.
All signs point to increasing the rate of growth of money. The people
do not understand the importance of keeping the rate down, so the
politicians certainly are not going to do anything about it. They'll
merely say the dollar is under attack, implying that foreigners for some
reason are attacking bur money, probably because we are so much better
off than they are.
If M1 grows at about a 7% rate, it means in about ten years, the money
supply will have doubled. Prices will have increased, some doubled, some
more, some less. Pensioners will be in a greater bind than they are now
for their incomes will hardly double. Grave unrest may erupt. The
problem is a serious one and nothing constructive is being done about
it. So, each individual will have to look out for himself, and take
whatever measures he can to counteract the tremendous drop in the
purchasing power of his dollar. The young can manage, but the elderly
will probably be all but inundated in the ocean of paper money.
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