.
| [Reprinted from The
Gargoyle, June 1965] |
If anyone has ever been inducted to the rites of the Keynesian theology
as this writer has, he will begin to understand George Orwell's world in
Which truth is falsity, wisdom is stupidity, and right is wrong.
In 1936, Sir Maynard Keynes published a book, The General Theory of
Employment, Interest and Money, which has become the bible of the
Keynesian votaries. So effective was he in capturing the imagination of
academicians that his concepts not only rule the economic theorists
today but have been translated into practical action.
His book is written in an erudite, but abstract fashion, so difficult
to understand that some of his disciples have written books to explain
him. At the risk of having over-simplified his ideas, the following will
give the reader some understanding of the basis of the recommendations
which the economic thinkers give to practical politicians, which effect
all of us.
Out of his work, the high priests of this cult have distilled a magic
formula. It is an equation: C + I + G = Y
This means that (C) consumption spending plus (I) investment spending
plus (G) government spending equal (Y) national income.
It is important to remember this formula for the manipulation of any of
the factors can increase or decrease Y (national income) and thereby
affect employment and our standard of living.
As a first step in understanding it, we will assume there is no
government so the formula reduces to C + I = Y -- that is, consumption
plus investment spending, equals national income. C is very important
for the difference between national income and what is consumed
constitutes the people's savings. Thus C + S = Y (Consumption plus
Savings equals National Income). Inspection of these two equations
points up the obvious fact that (S) savings necessarily equals (I)
investment spending. Because of this Keynes said savings equals
investment. Actually this amounts to defining savings as being
investment spending. But he goes on to state that savings and investment
must be made equal to one another, which is contradictory. If they are
equal why do you have to do something to make them equal? His disciples
have translated this into meaning that planned savings may not equal
planned investment as savers and investors are ordinarily different sets
of people, if people consume less and plan to save more and this planned
savings is greater than planned investment of businessmen, then the
economy automatically takes corrective action to preserve the equality.
C, S, I, or Y must change. Consumption may decrease, thereby cutting
down savings, or investment may increase to equal savings, or Y may drop
so savings is less and thus equal investment. But this correction may
mean depression for if T drops, it means unemployment, decreasing prices
and trouble.
The reverse might happen if planned I was greater than planned S, which
would mean that Y would increase. But if the economy was operating at
full employment, then as they could not increase production as the
economy is operating at capacity, it means that prices must rise, or
inflation. For Keynesians the devil in their religion is Savings. They
feel it has a tendency to be too great for planned investment, and
therefore there is a tendency for depression to occur, Keynesians rarely
worry about inflation, which is not surprising. After all, Keynes wrote
his work during the depths of the depression and his concern was to cure
it.
But note the Orwellian twist, Savings that is, thrift is evil. The
saver is a devil -- the wastral is a saint, for the more he consumes the
less he saves and then planned savings will probably equal planned
investment. Black is white and white is black.
Now, of course, government does exist so we now must put G back into
the equation to put it into its proper esoteric form. C + I + G = Y.
As you can see, now, this means that if you wish to increase national
income, if C and I remain the same, all you need to do is to increase G,
that is, increase government spending. Is it any wonder that Keynes was
the politicians' own boy. What politician doesn't want to increase
spending? And here is a "scientific" formula justifying it in
order to increase the nation's income.
Space does not permit discussion of all the interesting ramifications
involved in this formula. One may interest you, however.
With government in the picture, instead of savings equaling investment
spending, it is expanded into S + T = I + G (Savings plus taxes equals
investment and government spending). Now, if you know a little_ math,
you know this can be rearranged into S = I + (G -T).
But (G - T) government spending minus taxes is the budget and if G is
greater than Y, that is spending is more than taxes we have a deficit.
So S = I plus Deficit.
A surplus in the budget becomes negative. That is, it takes away from
investment spending and reduces savings. We have the interesting result
then that if you want to increase savings you have the government create
a deficit. Despite the Keynesians, people still feel savings is a
worthwhile action, but that being the case, they then should be in favor
of deficits as this increases savings. Again we have common sense turned
around. A deficit is good, a surplus is bad.
Now, you know why economists are not concerned that in 29 of the last
35 years the government has had deficits. They have proved to their own
satisfaction it is a good thing.
This gives you some clue to the fact that basically all Keynesian
economics is inflationary economics. Just as Marx appeared to have put
socialism on a scientific basis so Keynes appeared to have put inflation
on a scientific basis. But Just as events are proving Marx to be wrong
so events will prove Keynes to be wrong.
|