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Price Mechanism Anomalies: Why the
Market Allows the Business Cycle to Occur |
Personal and Market Value
Henry George gave the name 'personal value' to subjective value. He
went on to note that 'use value', the subject of Adam Smith's famous
query, is actually personal value. George shrewdly noted that 'use
value' refers not to the
capacity of something to be useful, but to its usefulness
to you.
Personal value is of interest to the economist only because of its
relationship to market value. Value at the market can be thought of as
objective as it can be seen by many people at the same time. The
market value of a trade good at the point of exchange confirms itself
in the very act of exchange.
We are obliged to make use of market value, for it's the only hard
evidence we have. When, at a particular tine and place an exchange
takes place two values define themselves in full view for all to see.
These values are always equal which leads one to conclude there can be
no such thing as an imbalance of trade.
Market value is clearly visible. Personal value is hidden, perhaps
even from the person who holds it. Yet, in the act of exchange we are
comparing these two. In our minds we have placed a value on the thing
we have. This value we compare with the market offer. Should the
market offer be higher, we are likely to trade. Should our personal
valuation be higher, we forgo the opportunity.
Capital and Wealth
Trade, along with its implied division of labor, leads the advance of
civilization. This advance may be gauged by the continual decrease in
the cost of products. Cheapness is by far the best index of general
economic advance.
The tendency for goods to become cheaper keeps production moving
through the market process. Holding a good means holding something
that is diminishing in value over time. But, there is a more immediate
pressure -- rising market prices. As the act of reaching the market
and supplying demand reduces prices, the first to arrive will get the
best price. Tardiness is penalized by a smaller return. So, in the
long run and in the short, the trader who would succeed must hurry to
market.
Other pressures push production into the market process. Storage
costs, even with minimum maintenance, are a drain on profit.
Furthermore, goods kept from buyers don't merely lose the lustre of
newness, they nay also inherit the mantle of obsolescence. Finally,
production is continuous. To keep the machines running, goods must be
moved out.
Trade goods, and indeed all products still in the productive process
are given the name Capital. Such goods, to remain capital, must earn
enough to maintain their value and compensate the lender.
Theoretically, a third requirement must be met. Enough must be earned
to make the use of the capital profitable to the borrower. Ricardian
analysis suggests this isn't quite so. But, in any event, if Capital
fails to pay its way, it will not long be left in the productive
process.
Another class of products are not capital but Wealth - a name given
to goods in the hands of the consumer. The primary characteristic of
consumer goods is that they diminish in value as wear and tear take
their toll. Consumer goods are used and are thus subject to physical
depreciation.
Economists are inclined to allow size and longevity to influence
definition. Thus, a home is given false status as a 'durable' when it
can be likened without prefix to a suit of clothes, or your lunch or
any other consumable. Breaking like things out of their conceptual
category is not helpful to scientific reasoning, even though it can
usefully pad a curriculum. With maintenance, a house nay last forty
years. With patching and other care, a suit may last for several
years. Cryogenically or chemically, food nay outlast both. But, cannon
to them all will be a depreciating value, the result of cheaper
replacements, rising maintenance costs and the inevitable onset of
obsolescence.
This simple division of products between capital which earns, and
wealth which is consumed appears to cover it all, but a third category
of goods must be considered. This is a class of consumable which
appreciates in value, the class we call collectibles. Why people
initially collect is a matter for the psychologists to ponder.
Certainly age is a factor. Perhaps because our first need is to
survive, advanced age is attractive. If you are old, you've made it.
Our reverence for age transfers to old things, living and dead. So,
elephants, whales, sequoias, stately hones, antiques, early comic
books become desirable simply because they have been around for a
while.
People collect things which are old -- because they are old. This
demand for old things is reflected in their higher market value. Soon,
these things are collected because they are old and because they have
an increasing market value.
The Price Mechanism
At this point, we must re-examine the market price mechanisn. This is
the most endlessly pawed over segment of economic theory. The argument
usually divides along political lines, with one side praising the
market as the best method for 'allocating scarce resources', even as
the other side points to its imperfections and outright failures.
Both sides are somewhat right as will become evident by reminding
ourselves of the actual process of the price mechanisn. When prices
rise, goods come to narket -- and reduce prices. That, along with its
reverse, is all there is to it. However, an assumption is made. That,
in response to a price increase, goods can be produced and brought to
market. This may not be the case.
In fact, we can say that when replacement goods either cannot be
produced, or cannot reach the market, the price mechanism fails. This
condition may arise from coercive political action, non-coercive
market decision, or non-coercive natural monopoly. Whichever is
responsible, when demand asserts itself and prices increase, goods do
not reach the market. Unsatisfied demand presses price upward seeking
to draw fresh supply and fails. It does not escape the attention of
the owners of such goods that price today is greater than price
yesterday and, with fresh supplies unavailable, the prospect for
tomorrow looks even better. It is better to wait than to sell. Unique
goods achieve a value based not on their utility, or their intrinsic
worth, but on their unique ability to subvert the price mechanism and
appreciate as they are held.
So, a Rosalie Beer can nay achieve an exchange value of $10,000 for
no better reason than it is the only one of its kind and may therefore
be considered a valid collectible. This is a non-coercive natural
Monopoly. A limited print edition, or first cover, or 'we broke the
mold', contrive collectibles by market decision. Import bans, or
patent restrictions may create high prices by coercion, but do not
always create 'collectibles'.
Collectibles
A collectible is a consumable that offers greater benefit from
collection than use. Collectibles stay away from the market, for
tomorrow the price may be higher. Non-collectibles must face multiple
attacks on their value from decreasing replacement prices, rising
storage costs, and the threat of obsolescence). They must rush to
market for tomorrow may be too late. In one case, the first to get to
market gets the highest price; in the second, the last to market gets
the highest price.
If the collectible phenomenon adversely affected us, the activity
might provoke our concentrated attention, but as Winston Churchill
said in addressing this question, "Paintings don't get in
anybody's way". However, a vital part of the economic system, a
part crucial to all production acts like a collectible. This is Land,
which in classical political economy named the concept of natural
resources untouched by Man.
The term Land covers many things, but common to them all is location.
Location is perhaps the single characteristic of land that, in these
days of atomic fission fits the description provided by John Stuart
Mill -- 'the original and indestructible power of the soil'.
And locations can be 'collected'.
In every way, location fulfills the conditions of collectibility. The
number of locations is fixed, no more can be produced. Each is unique
and clearly cannot be moved. The price mechanism cannot draw new
locations to the Market in response to price increase, yet will try by
pressing prices ever higher.
It becomes obvious that location prices (albeit with an occasional
stutter) move always upward. The usefulness of a location in
production becomes secondary to its value as a collectible, so
locations are kept from the market. When an economic factor essential
to human existence is disciplined by a market where everyone is trying
to be the last to sell, the economy has a problem.
Given this situation, land sales become less a reaction to market
pressure, than to outside circumstances. A death in the family, a cash
flow shortage, a pressing tax demand may serve to place land on the
market. And, increasingly important, is the governmental 'solution',
enforced purchase with heavily discounted resale to a developer.
Future Anticipated Value
We recall that trade takes place when market value is seen to be
greater than personal value. When your personal valuation of something
is $1,000, but the market is offering $2,000, you are likely to trade.
When your personal assessment is 12,600, but the market offers $1,000,
you are unlikely to trade.
As a collector, you are concerned, not with present market value, but
with the future anticipated value of the collectible. If you did not
believe that this future value would be higher, you probably would not
collect. Thus, your personal valuation of the collectible is the
future value which you anticipate will be greater than present market.
So,
ceteris paribus you do not sell.
But, this is not the end of the story. When pent-up demand is such
that a location similar to your own sells at your anticipated future
value, this new sale price becomes present market value. Your
response will be to adopt a new personal value based on yet higher
anticipations.
The land market suffers a paralysis that casts a shadow over all
productivity. Government compulsory purchase is used to attack the
problem, but it is an expediency that merely compounds the problem,
for nothing raises anticipations more than the prospect of a
governmental bottomless purse intervening in the market. Breaking the
land-price barrier by force simply raises higher the future barriers
to production.
As does control of rising housing rentals. Price mechanism failure in
the land market spills over into every market with which land is
intimately connected. When apartment rents rise in response to demand,
apartment construction should gain pace until, with demand net, rents
should fall. Even high in situ costs are no longer a factor,
for factory manufactured housing can be produced both speedily and
cheaply. (Factory produced nodule housing can be manufactured and
erected on site for a total of 50 man-hours!)
But, apartments need a site on which to perch, and sites cannot be
factory made and trucked to market. So, even though both factory and
traditionally constructed apartment costs exhibit continuing decline,
they are not built and apartment rents continue to rise.
Rent control does nothing to address the problem of site
'collection'. It has political manifestations as landholders and
government indulge in newsworthy thrusts and parries. But, it
exacerbates rental housing shortages, does little to help the poor,
the supposed beneficiaries of the exercise, and creates, in random
fashion, both privileged and underprivileged classes.
Slump!
There have been more theories of the business cycle than there have
been business cycles. Most of them suggest hauling an economy up from
slump by stimulating demand. Almost forgotten is the truism that
before consumption there must be production. Full warehouses at the
bottom of the depression indicates that the problem is lack of
consumption and this is correct. The question that is never asked, yet
is equally obvious is 'How do people consume'?
The answer is, of course, by producing first. If they are unable to
produce, they will have nothing to consume -- whether they produce for
themselves or for trade. The right of a consumer to demand is a
function of his ability to produce.
When land is 'collected' the price of sites climbs ever higher.
Production, which cannot take place without land, is forced to pay a
speculative premium which continually becomes more exacting.
Eventually, Labor and Capital cannot pay the tab, and production slows
and stops. Industries most closely linked to the land, such as farming
and construction, are usually the first to collapse, but others are
not far behind.
To some degree this is recognized by the huge governmental assistance
-- at all levels -- to these basic industries. Yet, all these
subsidies do is pay an existing personal value, stimulate increases in
the personal values of other landholders, and raise the ante for the
next round.
The situation at the moment is that governments, at all levels, are
quite openly buying land at the collectible price and reselling to
builders for little more than a promise to build. This appears to be
the only choice if their downtowns are to be revived. Yet, each tine
they solve their problem this way, they simply raise a barrier of
rising personal expectation around their downtown. These are
tomorrow's slums -- the problems that arise from a false solution.
Ending Land Collection
It should be understood that the act of land speculation is not a
crime. The 'site collectors' canhardly be blamed for acting like
normal human beings, within the law and according to common practice.
However, if the process is harmful -- in general to the economy, and
in particular to each individual who wishes to to rent, to buy, or to
build a home or factory -- the community is obliged to protect itself.
Effectively to deal with this problem, we must return 'location' to
the discipline of the market price mechanism. By far the most
promising direction to take would be the introduction of Community
Rent Charges for land use. As site value measures the positive
advantages of community activity, it would seen both just and
equitable to levy a charge for this benefit on each site-holder --
whether or not he chooses to take advantage of the benefit.
The economic consequences of such a charge would be to push unused
and underused sites onto the market. Basic economic difficulties erupt
out of our natural propensity to collect sites for future gain. If the
prospect of future gain was removed even as present holding without
use became unprofitable, sites would be released to the market, prices
would tumble and a variety of apparently insoluble basic economic
problems would disappear.
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