.
Land Markets and Business Cycles in the
United Kingdom and Australia |
[1] Banks, R, Costing the Earth, London:
Shepheard-Walwyn, 1989, p.39, 46. £23 bn capital consumption was
omitted from the 1988 house buildings value calculation (CSO Blue Book
1991, p.100), raising the land residual to 53% of total British
housing stock value, as against 35% in 1985. Banks (p.39) calculates
the capital value of all land in GB in 1985 to have been about £500
bn, or 43% of the £1160 bn relevant asset value in the national
balance sheet (1991 Blue Book, p.90). The Central Statistical Office
has not produced national balance sheet figures for 1988, but the
percentage of land to total real estate value would have been above
the 53% estimated for dwellings.
For the USA, Mason Gaffney concluded in 1970 that "land value
today is at least half of real estate and probably more" ("Adequacy
of Land as a Tax Base," in The Assessment of Land Value,
ed. Daniel M. Holland, Madison: Univ. of Wisconsin Press, 1970,
p.181). For Australia, R.H.Scott reported that land comprises less
than 40% of the aggregate price of land and improvements (The
Value of Land in Australia, Centre for Research on Federal
Financial Relations, Research Monograph No. 47, Canberra: The
Australian National University, 1986, p.3). However, his data preceded
the property boom of the late 1980s. For Denmark, Anders Muller
reported that the land component of all real estate was as low as 30%
in 1986 (Banks, p.169).
[2] The land price changes are from the Department of the
Environment's price index of private sector residential building plots
at constant average density in England and Wales, as published in its
quarterly Housing and Construction Statistics series, London:
HMSO. The house price changes are from the Nationwide Building
Society's mix-adjusted price index for all houses.
[3] March 14, 1992, p.16.
[4] "Cyclical and Sectional Variations in the Sale of Public
Lands, 1816-60," in Review of Economic Statistics (9),
1927, pp.41-53.
[5] One Hundred Years of Land Values in Chicago, Chicago:
University of Chicago Press, 1933
[6] Fred Harrison, The Power in the Land, London:
Shepheard-Walwyn, 1983, pp. 109-110, 117.
[7] Basic Principles of Economics and their Significance for
Public Policy, Columbia, Mo: Lucas Brothers, 3rd ed., 1955, pp.
123-124.
[8] The sources for the land price data are detailed by the author in
the two appendices to this chapter. The land price data is based on
the sum of all individual site values at July 1st each year. The
entries shown for 1961 and 1967 are the average growth rates for 1958
to 1964 and 1965 to 1969, respectively. The other data are taken from
various volumes ofthe International Monetary Fund's International
Financial Statistics Yearbook and the UK Central Statistical
Office's Blue Book. The Melbourne median house price data were
compiled by Ross King in Monopoly Rent, Residential
Differentiation and the Second Global Crisis of Capitalism,
Vol.28, pt.3 in the Progress in Planning series, Oxford:
Pergamon, 1987, p.218.
[9] "The Surprising Incidence of a Tax on Pure Rent: A New
Answer to an Old Question," in Journal of Political Economy
85, April 1977, pp.350-351.
[10] D.F.Hendry, "Econometric modelling of house prices in the
UK," in D.F.Hendry and K.F.Wallis, Econometrics and
Quantitative Economics, Oxford: Blackwell, 1984, pp. 226-227.
[11] Op. cit., p. 230.
[12] The Rt. Hon. Robin Leigh-Pemberton, in Glasgow, 23 May 1991
(Bank of England Press Notice).
[13] Kenneth Taeuber, "A Century of Experience with Land Value
Taxation," in A. Woodruff, et al., (eds.) International
Seminar on Land Taxation, Land Tenure and Land Reform in Developing
Countries, Phoenix: John C. Lincoln Foundation, 1967, pp. 136-137.
[14] Op. cit., pp. 3-4.
[15] Comparing Banks' figures, op. cit., p.39, with the UK
balance sheet valuation for 1985 in the 1988 CSO Blue Book, London:
HMSO, pp. 86-93.
[16] The Australian GDP data are for the fiscal year ending June
31st, and are taken from the 1989 issue of Year Book of Australia
(Canberra: Australian Bureau of Statistics) and the OECD series Main
Economic Indicators (Paris). The capacity utilisation data for
both countries is provided by the latter source.
[17] The Department of the Environment's private residential building
land price index has been deflated by an index of money GDP, to
indicate the growth in the capital value of the country's land
relative to the growth in its annual output. This indicator suggests
that the capital value of UK land in 1988 had more than tripled its
ratio to GDP of 1963. Of course, the increase in the amount of housing
land is not taken into account, nor its value relative to other types
of land (a fault overcome in Figure 10).
[18] Using the OECD's "medium" measure of money, "M1
plus quasi-money", in Main Economic Indicators, op.cit..
[19] The breakdown of gross domestic fixed capital spending into its
real property related components (dwellings, other new buildings and
works, and transfer costs of land and buildings) and other components
(plant and machinery, and vehicles, ships and aircraft) for the UK, is
taken from the CSO's Blue Book (United Kingdom National Accounts),
1991, p.94, and Economic Trends, Annual Supplement, 1988,
p.52. For Australia, the ABS's Australian National Accounts,
1976, p.29, and 1982, p.5, and various issues of the OECD's Main
Economic Indicators were consulted. The Australian data differs in
that it refers to private sector investment only - generally more than
two-thirds of the total.
[20] Ross King's account will be followed here, op. cit.,
p.221.
[21] IMF, op.cit.; OECD, op.cit..
[22] Land prices (UK) or aggregate land values (Australia) are
preferred, but to fill the gaps where they are not available house
prices have been used. For the UK, the Nationwide Building Society's
average UK house price index is taken from M.C.Fleming and J.G.Nellis,
Spon's House Price Data Book, London: Spon, 1987, p.301. For
Australia, Ross King's graph of median real house prices in Melbourne
is used, op.cit., p.218.
[23]Op. cit., p. 226.
[24] N. Clerehan, 28 Feb. 1972, in Age, quoted in Leonie Sandercock,
Cities for Sale, London: Heinemann, 1976, p.145.
[25] Op. cit., pp. 279-280.
[26] The practicability of increasing these taxes, and their revenue
raising potential, is discussed by the author in The Sisyphus
Syndrome, op. cit..
[27] June 14, 1989, p.3.
[28] Letter to Keith Thomas, published in The Georgist Quarterly,
Sydney: Association for Good Government, July 1991, p.2.
[29] Odd Man In, April 4, 1992, p.8.
[30] Reported in the London Financial Times, February 11,
1992.
[31] "Carrot and stick for middle classes", Financial
Times, April 13, 1992.
[32] Frank Brennan, Canberra in Crisis, Canberra: Dalton
Publishing Company, 1971, pp.107, 111, 143-144.
[33] Ibid., p.156.
[34] Department of Urban and Regional Development, Canberra:
Australian Government Publishing Service, 1974.
[35] Ross King, op. cit., p.218.
[36] Fred Harrison, op. cit., p.234.
APPENDIX 2
[] APPENDEX 1
[] MAIN TEXT
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