I was born in Milwaukee, Wisconsin, on June 15, 1916. My
father, an electrical engineer, had come to the United States in 1903
after earning his engineering diploma at the Technische Hochschule of
Darmstadt, Germany. He was an inventor and designer of electrical
control gear, later also a patent attorney. An active leader in
professional and civic affairs, he received an honorary doctorate from
Marquette University for his many activities in the community. My
mother, an accomplished pianist, was a third generation American, her
forebears having been '48ers who immigrated from Prague and Köln.
Among my European ancestors were piano builders, goldsmiths, and
vintners but to the best of my knowledge, no professionals of any
kind. The Merkels in Köln were Lutherans, the Goldschmidts in
Prague and the Simons in Ebersheim, Jews.
My home nurtured in me an early attachment to books and other
things of the intellect, to music, and to the out of doors. I received
an excellent general education from the public elementary and high
schools in Milwaukee, supplemented by the fine science department of
the public library and the many books I found at home. School work was
interesting but not difficult, leaving me plenty of time for sandlot
baseball and football, for hiking and camping, for reading and for
many extracurricular activities during my high school years. A
brother, five years my senior, while not a close companion, gave me
some anticipatory glimpses of each stage of growing up. Our dinner
table at home was a place for discussion and debate - often political,
sometimes scientific.
Until well along in my high school years, my interests were
quite dispersed, although they were increasingly directed toward
science - of what sort I wasn't sure. For most adolescents, science
means physics, mathematics, chemistry, or biology - those are the
subjects to which they are exposed in school. The idea that human
behavior may be studied scientifically is never hinted until much
later in the educational process - it was certainly not conveyed by
history or "civics" courses as they were then taught.
My case was different. My mother's younger brother, Harold
Merkel, had studied economics at the Universtity of Wisconsin under
John R. Commons. Uncle Harold had died after a brief career with the
National Industrial Conference Board, but his memory was always
present in our household as an admired model, as were some of his
books on economics and psychology. In that way I discovered the social
sciences. Uncle Harold having been an ardent formal debater, I
followed him in that activity too.
In order to defend free trade, disarmament, the single tax and
other unpopular causes in high school debates, I was led to a serious
study of Ely's economics textbook, Norman Angell's The Great
Illusion, Henry George's Progress and Poverty, and much
else of the same sort.
By the time I was ready to enter the University of Chicago, in
1933, I had a general sense of direction. The social sciences, I
thought, needed the same kind of rigor and the same mathematical
underpinnings that had made the "hard" sciences so
brilliantly successful. I would prepare myself to become a
mathematical social scientist. By a combination of formal training and
self study, the latter continuing systematically well into the 1940s,
I was able to gain a broad base of knowledge in economics and
political science, together with reasonable skills in advanced
mathematics, symbolic logic, and mathematical statistics. My most
important mentor at Chicago was the econometrician and mathematical
economist, Henry Schultz, but I studied too with Rudolf Carnap in
logic, Nicholas Rashevsky in mathematical biophysics, and Harold
Lasswell and Charles Merriam in political science. I also made a
serious study of graduate-level physics in order to strengthen and
practice my mathematical skills and to gain an intimate knowledge of
what a "hard" science was like, particularly on the
theoretical side. An unexpected by-product of the latter study has
been a lifelong interest in the philosophy of physics and several
publications on the axiomatization of classical mechanics.
My career was settled at least as much by drift as by choice. An
undergraduate field study for a term paper developed an interest in
decision-making in organizations. On graduation in 1936, the term
paper led to a research assistantship with Clarence E. Ridley in the
field of municipal administration, carrying out investigations that
would now be classified as operations research. The research
assistantship led to the directorship, from 1939 to 1942, of a
research group at the University of California, Berkeley, engaged in
the same kinds of studies. By arrangement with the University of
Chicago, I took my doctoral exams by mail and moonlighted a
dissertation on administrative decision-making during my three years
at Berkeley.
When our research grant was exhausted, in 1942, jobs were not
plentiful and my military obligations were uncertain. I secured a
position in political science at Illinois Institute of Technology by
the intercession of a friend who was leaving. The return to Chicago
had important, but again largely unanticipated, consequences for me.
At that time, the Cowles Commission for Research in Economics was
located at the University of Chicago. Its staff included Jacob
Marschak and Tjalling Koopmans who were then directing the graduate
work of such students as Kenneth Arrow, Leo Hurwicz, Lawrence Klein,
and Don Patinkin. Oscar Lange, not yet returned to Poland, Milton
Friedman, and Franco Modigliani frequently participated in the Cowles
staff seminars, and I also became a regular participant.
That started me on a second education in economics,
supplementing the Walrasian theory and Neyman-Pearson statistics I had
learned earlier from Henry Schultz (and from Jerzy Neyman in Berkeley)
with a careful study of Keyne's General Theory (made
comprehensible by the mathematical models proposed by Meade, Hicks,
and Modigliani), and the novel econometric techniques being introduced
by Frisch and investigated by the Cowles staff. With considerable
excitement, too, we examined Samuelson's new papers on comparative
statics and dynamics.
I was soon co-opted by Marschak into participating in the study
he and Sam Schurr were directing of the prospective economic effects
of atomic energy. Taking responsibility for the macroeconomic parts of
that study, I used as my analytic tools both classical Cobb-Douglas
functions, and the new activity analysis being developed by Koopmans.
Although I had earlier published papers on tax incidence (1943) and
technological development (1947), the atomic energy project was my
real baptism in economic analysis. My interest in mathematical
economics having been aroused, I continued active work on problems in
that domain, mainly in the period from 1950 to 1955. It was during
this time that I worked out the relations between causal ordering and
identifiability--coming for the first time in contact with the related
work of Herman Wold--discovered and proved (with David Hawkins) the
Hawkins-Simon theorem on the conditions for the existence of positive
solution vectors for input-output matrices, and developed (with Albert
Ando) theorems on near-decomposability and aggregation.
In 1949, Carnegie Institute of Technology received an endowment
to establish a Graduate School of Industrial Administration. I left
Chicago for Pittsburgh to participate with G. L. Bach, William W.
Cooper, and others in developing the new school. Our goal was to place
business education on a foundation of fundamental studies in economics
and behavioral science. We were fortunate to pick a time for launching
this venture when the new management science techniques were just
appearing on the horizon, together with the electronic computer. As
one part of the effort, I engaged with Charles Holt, and later with
Franco Modigliani and John Muth, in developing dynamic programming
techniques-- the so-called "linear decision rules"--for
aggregate inventory control and production smoothing. Holt and I
derived the rules for optimal decision under certainty, then proved a
certainty-equivalence theorem that permitted our technique to be
applied under conditions of uncertainty. Modigliani and Muth went on
to construct efficient computational algorithms. At this same time,
Tinbergen and Theil were independently developing very similar
techniques for national planning in the Netherlands.
Meanwhile, however, the descriptive study of organizational
decision-making continued as my main occupation, in this case in
collaboration with Harold Guetzkow, James March, Richard Cyert and
others. Our work led us to feel increasingly the need for a more
adequate theory of human problem-solving if we were to understand
decisions. Allen Newell, whom I had met at the Rand Corporation in
1952, held similar views. About 1954, he and I conceived the idea that
the right way to study problem-solving was to simulate it with
computer programs. Gradually, computer simulation of human cognition
became my central research interest, an interest that has continued to
be absorbing up to the present time.
My research on problem-solving left me relatively little
opportunity to do work of a more classical sort in economics. I did,
however, continue to develop stochastic models to explain the observed
highly-skewed distributions of sizes of business firms. That work, in
collaboration with Yuji Ijiri and others, was summarized in a book
published just two years ago.
In this sketch, I have said less about my work on
decision-making than about my other research in economics because the
former is discussed at greater length in my Nobel lecture. I have also
left out of this account those very important parts of my life that
have been occupied with my family and with non-scientific pursuits.
One of my few important decisions, and the best, was to persuade
Dorothea Pye to marry me on Christmas Day, 1937. We have been blessed
in being able to share a wide range of our experiences, even to
publishing together in two widely separate fields: public
administration and cognitive psychology. We have shared also the
pleasures and responsibilities of raising three children, none of whom
seem imitative of their parents' professional directions, but all of
whom have shaped for themselves interesting and challenging lives.
My interests in organizations and administration have extended
to participation as well as observation. In addition to three stints
as a university department chairman, I have had several modest public
assignments. One involved playing a role, in 1948, in the creation of
the Economic Cooperation Administration, the agency that administered
Marshall Plan aid for the U.S. Government. Another, more frustrating,
was service on the President's Science Advisory Committee during the
last year of the Johnson administration and the first three years of
the Nixon administration. While serving on PSAC, and during another
committee assignment with the National Academy of Sciences, I have had
opportunities to take part in studies of environmental protection
policies. In all of this work, I have tried - I know not with what
success - to apply my scientific knowledge of organizations and
decision-making, and, conversely, to use these practical experiences
to gain new research ideas and insights.
In the "politics" of science, which these and other
activites have entailed, I have had two guiding principles - to work
for the "hardening" of the social sciences so that they will
be better equipped with the tools they need for their difficult
research tasks; and to work for close relations between natural
scientists and social scientists so that they can jointly contribute
their special knowledge and skills to those many complex questions of
public policy that call for both kinds of wisdom.