.

Myth:

There are billions of barrels of oil which can be readily recovered from oil shale in the U.S.

As the United States has the world's largest and richest deposits of oil shale, the optimistic statements which sometimes arise from that fact are among the more commonly heard in regard to the U.S. energy future. An enthusiastic article about oil shale in the prestigious Fortune magazine is titled: "Shale Oil is Braced for Big Role." It concludes, "Shale oil is not the whole answer to the energy problem but it's one of the few pieces that is already within the nation's grasp."(l9) The article was written in 1979. As of 1997 no oil from oil shale is being produced in the U.S.... or anywhere else.

Reality:

The supposedly great prospects for the production of oil from oil shale in the United States has been one of the most widely promoted and heard energy myths for many years. Statements even made by government agencies can be quite misleading. These arise perhaps because it is good government policy to take as optimistic view as possible toward any national problem. The statements also are due to a less than careful examination of the facts, and perhaps a bit of promotion for the agency involved. The statement is made by a U.S. government organization that "...using demonstrated methods of extraction, recovery of about 80 billion barrels of oil from accessible high-grade deposits of the Green River Formation is possible at costs competitive with petroleum of comparable quality."(l2) This is a clear misstatement of the facts. At the time it was written (1981) there had been no demonstrated methods of oil recovery at costs competitive with oil of comparable quality, nor have there been any such methods demonstrated to this date. A variety of processes have been tried. All have failed. Unocal, Exxon, Occidental Petroleum, and other companies and the U.S. Bureau of Mines have made substantial efforts but with no commercial results. A state government agency issued a pamphlet on oil shale stating, "The deposits are estimated to contain 562 billion barrels of recoverable oil. This is more than 64 percent of the world's total proven crude oil reserves."(29) The implication here is that the oil which could be "recoverable" could be produced at a net energy profit as if it were barrels of oil from a conventional well.

The average citizen seeing this statement in a government publication is led to believe that the United States really has no oil supply problem when oil shales hold "recoverable oil" equal to "more than 64 percent of the world's total proven crude oil reserves." Presumably the United States could tap into this great oil reserve at any time. This is not true at all. All attempts to get this "oil" out of shale have failed economically. Furthermore, the "oil" (and, it is not oil as is crude oil, but this is not stated) may be recoverable but the net energy recovered may not equal the energy used to recover it. If oil is "recovered" but at a net energy loss, the operation is a failure. Also, the environmental impacts of developing shale oil, especially related to the available water supply (the headwaters of the already over used Colorado river), and the disposal of wastes, do not seem manageable, at least a the present time, and perhaps not all.

The clear implication of both of these government statements is that oil shale is a huge readily available source. Because of the enormous amount of "oil" which has been claimed that could be recovered, this gives a large sense of energy security which does not exist. For this reason it is a particularly dangerous myth.

Myth:

Canada's oilsands with 1.7 trillion barrels of oil will be a major world oil supply

It appears to be true that in the Athabasca oilsands and nearby related heavy oil and bitumen deposits of northern Alberta there is more oil than in all of the Persian Gulf deposits put together.

Reality:

The impressive figure of 1.7 trillion barrels of oil is deceiving. It is likely that only a relatively small amount of that total can be economically recovered. The oil is true crude oil but it cannot be recovered by conventional well drilling. Almost all of it is now recovered by strip mining. The overburden is removed and the oilsand is dug up and hauled to a processing plant. There the oil is removed by a water floatation process. The waste sand has to be disposed of.

Much of the oilsand is too deep to be reached by strip mining. Other methods are being tried to recover this deeper oil, but the economics are marginal. With the strip mining and refining process now in use, it takes the energy equivalent of two barrels of oil to produce one barrel. To expand the strip mining operation to the extent which could, for example, produce the 18 million barrels of oft used each day in the United States would involve the world's biggest mining operation, on a scale which is simply not possible in the foreseeable future, if ever. Canada will probably gradually increase the oil production from these deposits, but until the conventional oil of the world is largely depleted these Canadian deposits are likely to represent only a very small fraction of world production. The production will always be insignificant relative to potential demand. Oilsands are now and will be important to Canada as a long-term source of energy and income. But they will not be a source of oil as are the world's oil wells today.

Other Myths

Myth:

Energy from any Source is readily used

Energy can be defined as the "capacity for doing work." (Webster's Collegiate Dictionary, Seventh Edition). Alternative energy sources are sometimes thought of as easily interchangeable. Energy is energy: there are no great problems in switching from one energy source to another. This is a myth.

Reality:

An important fact, commonly ignored in discussing alternative energy sources, is that energy sources come in very different forms. Adapting these various forms to various end uses presents many problems. Electricity and gasoline can each do work, but these energy sources present very different problems when it comes to using them in particular applications. This is generally ignored by people who suggest on bumper stickers, for example, that "Solar Is The answer," or "Go Solar." Sounds simple. It isn't.

The conversion of the intermittently available very low-grade solar energy into an energy form which could be used to power the automobile as we use the automobile today is a complex process, and has not yet been satisfactorily solved. In many cases it is not possible to conveniently or easily substitute one energy source for another. Each has its own characteristics which may be useful in some circumstances and a decided problem in another situation. Coal can be used to produce electricity quite easily in a conventional coal-fired electric power plant. But using coal directly to power an airplane, or using the electricity produced by coal to power an airplane does not now, at least, seem possible, and may never be.

Energy from a variety of sources is not universally interchangeable in its applications. The transition from one energy source to another will in many cases be difficult, and may cause major adjustments in lifestyles.

Myth:

We can conserve our way out of the energy supply problem The movement to conserve our way out of the energy crises and supply problems has been vigorously promoted from time to time when energy shortages have occurred. In between such times, energy conservation seems to fade a bit as a general concern. But the widespread concept remains that conservation can solve the energy problem.

Reality:

Energy and mineral conservation and recycling are useful goals, but conservation is only a temporary solution to the overall problem of continued growth of energy demand from an ever-increasing population. To accommodate more and more people, each person might use less and less resources, but at some point there is a minimum amount of the resource which has to be used. Reducing the amount beyond that point is not feasible. If one uses a vehicle for business, by a careful planning of the necessary travel route, one can reduce the need for fuel, but one cannot continue indefinitely to reduce the amount of fuel needed. Eventually there is simply not enough fuel to do the job. At some point the real problem must be addressed-the demand for the resource-and this demand comes from numbers of people, and lifestyle. There is no way to ultimately conserve out of the energy supply problem against an ever-increasing population. Demand can be reduced but if at the same time, an increase in population absorbs those savings there is no gain. Demands cannot be reduced to zero. Conservation and recycling can only buy time in which to stabilize population to a size which can exist on a renewable resource economy, which also has to be devised.

Myth:

The political campaign promise-"we will achieve energy independence" During the 1970s and early 1980s, because of the recent oil crises, a popular political campaign promise was that a presidential candidate and his party would achieve "energy independence" for the United States. Presumably this would be accomplished in four years or no more than eight as there is a two-term limit on the U.S. presidency. Citizens look for cures to their problems, and the candidate who can most convincingly promise them may be the winner.

Without making specific reference as to which politicians (some of them were elected) made such promises, it may be noted that, win or lose, soon after the campaigns have been over, the goal of energy independence seems to have been lost in the shuffle of everyday politics as usual.

Reality:

It may be hoped that U.S. energy independence can eventually be achieved, but it will never be based on oil produced in the United States. Unless oil consumption is greatly reduced, the United States henceforth will be increasingly dependent on foreign supplies.

As part of the "energy independence" program came the headline statement from one presidential candidate, "We Will Find New Fuels". That promise was made in 1979. The candidate lost, and we have not made much progress on new fuels, now importing twice as much oil as then.

A promise made by a sitting U.S. president in the 1970s was an edict stating, "I am inaugurating a program to marshal both Government and private research with the goal of producing an unconventionally powered, virtually pollution-free automobile within 5 years." As the electric car was known then (and indeed electric cars existed before gasoline-powered cars) presumably the "unconventionally powered" car would have to be something else.

That promise is now more than two decades old and the promised new era automobile has not arrived. These statements are made primarily to gain public favor-and votes. But in the process the public is led down unrealistic paths. Politicians making such statements owe it to the people who give them public trust, to more carefully examine the facts, and not simply express cheerful hopes. Political posturing and optimism will not solve the energy supply problem. However, political decisions can encourage development of alternative energy supplies, and subsidize research toward that end. This should be done.

Energy independence for the United States is at present becoming less and less a near term possibility. The economy continues to be based very largely on petroleum, and oil imports continue to increase each year. Any political candidate who states that energy independence can be achieved for the United States in any presidential term of office (or even in two or three decades) is simply either not being honest or is totally ignorant of energy supply, and the prospects for viable alternatives.

A national move toward energy independence, which has to be expressed by the citizens through their elected representatives in the Congress, has not materialized. Energy independence for the U.S. will remain a myth if the present energy course is continued. It need not be a myth but the will to make the effort, and the reorganization of society which it would take to make energy independence a reality are nowhere in sight. Also, even if there were a consensus now, it would take many years to do the things necessary to achieve energy independence, and the capital expenditures necessary to do this would be huge. Any promise of energy independence for the U.S., at least within the next several decades, remains clearly a myth, hopeful vote-luring political statements notwithstanding.

Myth:

< "At current rate of consumption ..."

This is commonly used as a comforting statement to assure the public that there is no looming shortage of a given resource. "At the current rate of consumption" a given resource will last for at least X number of years. Usually, this is quite a long time. There is no problem.

Reality:

This very misleading myth is that the "current rate of consumption" does not represent the future. The rate of consumption of almost ail resources, particularly energy, is increasing every year. The increase in resource consumption is caused by three factors: population growth, a demand for an increase in per capita consumption of a resource to increase living standards, and a larger number of uses found for a given resource. Oil is the classic example which illustrates increased demand from all three causes. Present demand for oil is increasing at the rate of about two percent annually, which means demand will double in 35 years. "Current rate of consumption" has no realistic relationship to the future.

Demand does not grow arithmetically, but increases exponentially. That is, it goes up as a percentage each year over the previous year. Therefore, the statement that a depletable resource will last for X number of years "at current rate of consumption" has little relation to the reality of the actual life of the resource. A resource may have a life of 100 years at the "current rate of consumption." But, at the seemingly low rate of a five percent annual increase in demand, the resource will only last about 36 years. Because almost all resources are finite, and the population has no theoretical limit to growth, ultimately the population by its exponential growth of demand will overwhelm the available resource.

That we are living in a time of exponential growth is ably presented by Lapp in his classic book The Logarithmic Century.(18) That the general public does not appreciate the importance of the effect of exponential growth has been pointed out by Bartlett who has written a convincing discussion of the myth of "at current rate of consumption," and the large numbers which quickly result from a seemingly insignificant annual rate of increase in use of a resource.(3) In other writings and in numerous lectures, Bartlett has pointed out, by several striking examples, that this is one of the most dangerously misleading myths to which the public is continually exposed. He states, "The greatest shortcoming of the human race is our inability to understand the exponential function."

A recent example of such a misleading statement regarding oil supplies is that made by a ranking oil industry analyst on a popular Friday night Public Broadcasting System program.(30) The statement, regarding world oil reserves, was that current supplies are "...enough to last us for 40 years at current consumption rates." This statement is grossly misleading for two reasons: First, "current consumption rates" are transitory, and demand for oil will continue to increase. "Current consumption rates" have little relevance to the future.

Second, if the statement was to be taken literally it would mean that for 40 years we would have the same amount of oil available as we have today, but in the 41st year there would be none. This also has no relation to reality.

The production of a finite resource is never a flat line. In broad form, smoothing out irregularities caused by political, economic, and technological events, the production is a bell-shaped curve. (Figure 8) It is estimated now that world oil production will continue to increase until about the year 2010 (see Ivanhoe, Chapter 28 and Figure 9), and then begin a permanent decline.

There is little, if any, possibility that the amount of oil available worldwide 40 years hence will be the same as today. It will be less, and the critical point is when world oil production begins to decline, not when the last drop of oil is ever pumped from the ground.

One might peripherally observe that the statement made that the world has 40 years' oil supply at current rate of consumption was made in the context of being reassuring. However, 40 years hence is within the life expectancy of many, if not most people living in today's highly oil-dependent industrialized societies. However, the figure of 40 years is both illogical and irrelevant, and misleads the average citizen to thinking there is no problem for at least 40 years. The reality is that a permanent world oil crisis will occur when world oil production begins to decline early in the 21st century. Most of the present world's citizens will see that time.

Figure 8.

Curves of discoveries and production during a complete production cycle of a finite resource.

(After Hubbert, 1956)

Myth:

Mining the moon

It may seem to younger persons who were not part of the time of great enthusiasm for space exploration that to suggest mining the moon is ridiculous. But older persons recall the heady days of early lunar exploration when this idea was proposed. Mining the moon was one of the seriously suggested reasons widely discussed and advocated for lunar exploration. The minerals would be brought back to Earth for processing, or mineral processing stations could be set up on the moon and the refined product brought to Earth.

Reality:

Small samples of moon rock have been brought back to Earth. Unfortunately, from the samples taken, the moon appears to be made up largely of a rock very similar to basalt here on Earth, of which there is a vast supply and which has no commercially useful mineral composition. The surface moon rocks do apparently have a slightly higher iron content than the average composition of the Earth, but going to the moon to mine iron does not seem to have attractive economics in either the near or foreseeable future. The energy cost of transportation would be astronomical.

Myth:

Export the population problem to outer space

This also may seem like an idea too absurd to discuss. However, it is amazing what can be suggested even in high government circles. In those early space exploration times, some thought that the answer to the population problem was to export it from Earth. Hardin has identified the source of this myth stating: "In 1958, four years after the founding of NASA -the National Aeronautics and Space Administration-its congressional guardian, the Science and Astronautics Committee, supported the idea of space migration as an ultimate solution to the problem of a 'bursting population."' Hardin adds, ". . . when an agency is fighting for space that counts-space at the public trough-its administrators are in no hurry to correct statements that increase the size of their budget."(14)

Regardless of their logic or otherwise, ideas of populating space persist. In 1996, an article in a national magazine proposed that most industrial plants on Earth be replaced by those built on the moon and that the population pressures on Earth be solved by colonizing Mars. Some quotes from that article follow:

"The only way to keep the economy expanding infinitely is to expand our resource base infinitely. The universe is a big place. Human ingenuity is such that we will find innumerable ways to economically prosper in space"

"We will have escaped the trap of a closed, cyclical economy; the riches of the solar system will lie before us."

"The moon, with no ecosystem to damage, can become the seat of heavy industry. The earth, relieved of its population pressure and industrial burden as people migrate, can be allowed to regreen."(16)

Reality:

Just to keep even with population growth, much less reduce the people pressure on this already overcrowded planet, approximately 250,000 people a day would have to be rocketed off to "somewhere" in outer space! The only merit might be that it would generate a lot of employment in a very large aerospace industry to produce the spaceships needed daily. The amount of energy needed to propel these vehicles was never calculated or how it was to be continually obtained.

Mining the moon and sending people off into space to solve the population problem were myths at one time advocated by people who wanted to promote their special interests in the space program. That these suggestions would come from U.S. Government agencies is almost incredible.

Similar suggestions made more recently stem from a recognition that we face increasing environmental problems and demands on limited resources.(16)

With this there can be little disagreement, but continuing to escort people to space to solve the problem is not reasonable, to put it mildly. The support systems necessary to keep people alive in space already seen in our current very small space program are very expensive in terms of resources. To provide such for the 250,000 people a day launched into space just to keep the Earth's population stable is almost beyond comprehension, and this would have to be done indefinitely. Humans are adjusted to the environment on Earth, and space is a vast and very hostile environment unfit for human habitation. Space does not offer a viable alternative to the environment on Earth. The dream of colonizing space will remain just that. Any credibility given it only serves to momentarily divert attention from the reality of the closed resource system which is the Earth and with which we must deal.

Cohen has stated what we may hope will be the final word on the concept of exporting excess population to outer space:

"Let me dispense once and for all with extraterrestrial emigration. To achieve a reduction in the global population growth from say 1.6 percent to 1.5 percent would currently require departure of 0.001 x 5.7 billion =3D 5.7 million astronauts in the first year and increasing numbers in each later year. To export this number of people would bankrupt the remaining Earthlings and would still leave a population that doubled every 46 years. Demographically speaking space is not the place."(10)

A final fundamental fact related to moon mining and space travel in general is the cost. At present the cost of moving the space shuttle, satellites, and other payloads into orbit is about $10,000 a pound. In 1996, Lockheed Martin Corporation was awarded a billion dollar contract by the U.S. government to develop what is called the X-33 next generation of space shuttle. One of these is expected to be operational before 2010, and could bring the cost down to $1,000 a pound or perhaps slightly less for payload transport to space. However, this too, seems excessive for an extensive use, and reinforces a view which has been expressed regarding vehicles designed to access space that it is the "most effective device know to man for destroying dollar bills."

Let us hear no more about the absurdity of space colonization. These examples of myths emphasize the continual need to use reality in examining statements made, even by government officials, with regard to our energy and mineral resources, and population problem. These are basic to our very existence, and it is most important that plans for the future, by both government and the private sector, be firmly based on realities.

Myth: The omnipotence of science and technology-it can do anything There continues to be a belief in some circles that technology and science can indeed solve all problems of human material existence indefinitely, as noted by the following and what might be regarded as the ultimate myth.

In 1995, a large volume appeared wherein a number of scientists and others expressed some moderately positive and reasonable views of the present human condition and the future. However, the introduction contained the following statements:

"Technology exists now to produce in virtually inexhaustible quantities just about all the products made by nature-foodstuffs, oil, even pearls, and diamonds- and make them cheaper in most cases than the cost of gathering them in the wild natural state."

"We have in our hands now-actually, in our libraries-the technology to feed clothe, and supply energy to an ever-growing population for the next seven billion years...Indeed, the last necessary additions to this body of technology-nuclear fission and space travel-occurred decades ago. Even if no new knowledge were ever invented after those advances, we would be able to go on increasing our population forever, while improving our standard of living and control over our environment."(25)

Reality:

If it were not for the fact that this volume was published under the auspices of a presumably creditable national research institute, these statements would not merit comment. A few brief observations are made here.

The terms "virtually inexhaustible" cannot reasonably be applied to anything on this Earth except perhaps the ocean water, and rocks. Also, to support the concept that "we would be able to go on increasing our population forever" or at least for a minimum of "seven billion years" one might assume that some sort of calculations were made to back up the statement. No calculations were presented.

The author of the "7 billion years" published statement is later reported to have said it was a misprint and should have been "7 million years" of population growth. University of Colorado physicist Albert Bartlett made the calculations, however, stating in regard to the reduction in number from 7 billion to 7 million, "it is too early to breathe easily." Using the 7 million figure and based on a 1% annual population growth rate (current annual rate is 1.7%), he determined that the population after 7 million years would be 2.3 x 1030409.7137 and added that "it is hard to imagine the meaning [of such a large number]...The number is something like 30 kilo-orders of magnitude larger than the number of atoms estimated to be in the known universe!"(5)

The editor of the book who wrote the fanciful introduction is not a scientist nor technologist. It is an observable fact that people other than scientists and technologists are frequently more confident of what these disciplines can do for the future than are the scientists and technologists themselves-the people who are aware of the basic facts of the availability of resources and what might be done with them, or to replace them.

Faith that science and technology can solve all resource supply problems is evidenced by the widely expressed public view that "you scientists will think of something." It ignores the fact that something cannot be made from nothing, and in order to have a resource one must have some material thing with which to work. This fact, however, is met with the thought that substitutions can be made. This is true, within the reality that eventually substitutions also become exhausted. Also, there are definite limits as to what substitutions can be made.

There is, for example, no substitute for water. The age of alchemy is not here nor is it ever likely to arrive. Alchemy is the medieval chemical "science" which strived to turn base metals into gold. In general it is thought of as the ability to transform some common material into something more valuable. If this were possible one could make some wonderful substitutions-oil from granite. This is an absurdity. Yet there are shades of this concept expressed. In discussing copper as a resource, Simon states that there is no problem, "because copper can be made from other metals..."(24) This statement has no basis of fact, and it is highly unlikely that such will ever be possible. No scientific research suggests that this could be done on any commercial scale. Minute amounts of copper might be produced from other materials in a so-called "atom-smasher" at a huge cost of energy. The nature of matter is such that transmutation of elements is not a practicality.

However, Simon goes on, "Even the total weight of the earth is not a theoretical limit to the amount of copper that might be available to earthlings in the future. Only the total weight of the universe...would be a theoretical limit."(24)

In discussing energy, Simon states, "With respect to energy, it is particularly obvious that the Earth does not bound the quantity available to us. Our sun (and perhaps other suns) is the basic source of energy in the long run..."(23) Should an energy policy be based on the idea that we can draw on "other suns?" This astounding statement that we might be able to draw on "other suns" is by a professor in a reputable state university, and was published in the venerable magazine Science.

Simon also expresses faith in the ability of science and technology to supply the world with natural resources in unlimited amounts and in his book he has titled a chapter, Can the Supply of Natural Resources Really be Infinite ? Yes!

He states,

"...we shall be compelled to reject the simple depletion theory. The revised theory will suggest that natural resource are not finite in any meaningful economic sense mind-boggling though this assertion may be. That is, there is no solid reason to believe that there will ever be a greater scarcity of these extractive resources in the long-run future than there is now. Rather, we can confidently expect copper and other minerals to get progressively less scarce."(24)

Bartlett has written a well-reasoned review of Simon's concept that there is no meaningful limit to resource availability.(4)

Science and technology do have limits imposed by the immutable laws of physics, chemistry, and mathematics. At the present time it seems clear that if current trends continue in growth of population, the demands of the human race will soon overwhelm the ability of science and technology to solve the problems of availability of resources, which are the basis for human existence.

Alan Overton of the American Mining Congress states: "the American people have forgotten one important fact: It takes stuff to make things." Pesticides, paint, medicines, and fertilizer cannot be made from solar energy.

In 1992, the U.S. National Academy of Sciences and the Royal Society of London together issued a statement warning that "if current predictions of population growth prove accurate and patterns of human activity on the planet remain unchanged, science and technology may not be able to prevent either irreversible degradation of the environment or continued poverty for much of the world." If present trends continue, ultimately scientists and technologists will not be able "to think of something."

Ryerson, commenting on the concept of a "technology fix" with respect to population growth, states:

"Some of the more outlandish claims of the 'technology fix' advocates-for example, that we could ship our excess people to other planets-have almost been forgotten (imagine sending aloft 90 million people per year). Yet, while extraterrestrial migration is no longer taken seriously by most people, many of the unsubstantiated claims of new technologies that will 'save the day' are still seen by many as a reason not to worry about population growth."(22)

It is important to understand that a "technology fix" is not the answer to unrestrained population growth. And future plans should not be based on unrealistic expectations.

Myth: Because past predictions of resource and population problems have proved incorrect, all future such predictions will not come true, therefore there is no need to be concerned.

This view stems in part from past predictions of disasters which did not materialize as scheduled. Notable were those by Malthus in 1798. The argument presented by those who apparently see no need now to relate population to resources is that if Malthus' predictions of two centuries ago proved so wrong, why should similar predictions be taken seriously today.

Reality:

Malthus-then and now

Malthus' predictions were wrong because he did not foresee the coming industrial and scientific revolution. The Industrial Revolution provided much improved housing with adequate space heating, greatly improved sanitary facilities, and machines and the energy to run them. It provided the basis for supporting a much expanded population. Huge resources not known to Malthus were discovered and developed.

But with this much improved scene today, why should there be concern for the future?

The problem is that science and technology will not be able to continue to discover and develop the amount of new resources necessary to support a population growing at an exponential rate. And resources which might be thought of as something which could be depended on indefinitely such as soil and groundwater are being degraded. Population demands on resources are beginning to outpace the ability of science and technology to provide them. This is due to the fact that resources are not limitless. The availability of material resources to sustain the quality of life cannot keep pace with a continued exponential growth of population. Advanced exploration and production technologies have allowed geologists and engineers in a less than two hundred years to discover and develop the huge store of mineral and energy resources which accumulated slowly over billions of years. In a fraction of a second in terms of the length of human existence, Earth resources basic to civilization have been brought into production in volumes never before seen.

Soils, oil, high grade metal and coal deposits and now those of lower grade, groundwater, and other resources including dam sites, are being used up at an unparalleled rate. Since 1900, world population has increased nearly four times, but the world economy has expanded more than 20 times. =46ossil fuel use has increased by a factor of 30 and industrial production has grown by a factor of 50, and four-fifths of these increases have occurred since 1950. Civilization exists now in a new reality which is far different from that of Malthus's time. Population grows but mineral and energy resources do not increase. By discovery and advanced recovery technology, the immediate supply can be made to increase, but in total, minerals and energy sources with the exception of sunlight, are depletable.

Since the beginning of the Industrial Revolution, the speed of human assault upon Earth's resources has greatly increased. More petroleum, coal, and metals have been used since 1950 than in all previous human history. In the United States the high grade, easily won, low cost deposits of iron ore (hematite), copper, and petroleum have been depleted. In some other regions of the world, high grade deposits still exist but are rapidly being developed and used. There are few major dam sites in the United States on which to build large reservoirs for additional hydroelectric power, and irrigation projects. Elsewhere more do exist but are now being developed, as, for example, the huge Yangtze River project. Dam sites are non-renewable and when the reservoirs completely silt up as has already happened at some localities, that resource is gone. All over the world, groundwater tables are dropping, in many areas precipitously, as in China, India, Australia, the Middle East and in parts of western United States. In Malthus' time none of these things had occurred.

For hundreds of thousands of years the human population had made only a minor impact on mineral and energy resources. With low living standards, and little or no medical services, the population grew very slowly, and sometimes was even briefly reversed by famines and plagues. But these hazards have been largely eliminated and population has soared. It took from the beginning of human existence to approximately the year 1850 to reach the first billion world population mark. It will take less than 10 years to increase the present five and three quarter billion by another billion.

What is different from the time of Malthus? The population in his time was small and the potential resources were large and undeveloped. Subsequently, the Industrial Revolution was rather rapidly able to produce enormous resource and material wealth in contrast to the past. It was the hare of energy and mineral development leaping ahead of the tortoise of population. In part, the population growth was tortoise in speed because of the lack of modern medicine, including vaccines and the knowledge of what caused plagues which would decimate populations. And, to a large extent, that hare of mineral and energy has kept ahead of population. This has been achieved by expanding the search, discovery and development of vital raw materials to a worldwide endeavor. That was not possible during Malthus' life.

But now with the present worldwide transportation network made possible chiefly by oil not available to Malthus, mineral and energy supplies can be searched for and produced on one area and transported great distances to another region. When one area experiences declining production, discoveries are made in other regions. Britain's metal deposits and coal resources were small but they supplied the basis for the start of the Industrial Revolution. But eventually the supply base moved to the rich undeveloped North American continent, and then oil was discovered. But now these North American metal and oil deposits have been largely developed and some are in decline. The oil development has gone more and more to the Middle East. Metal exploitation has moved to South America, New Guinea, Australia, and Africa. Worldwide, petroleum and metals are still in abundance. This tends to give a false expectation of a continual cornucopia of Earth resources, and an unjustified complacency especially in political circles toward the future.

However, we are running out of more world to explore and exploit. Only the ice-covered Antarctic continent remains untouched. In Malthus' time, the entire world's mineral and energy resources were virtually undeveloped, and the means to exploit them did not exist.

In Malthus' time, there was a small population and huge undeveloped world energy and mineral resources. The situation is now reversing. The difference is the present peaking or declining energy and mineral production in many parts of the world, and an already huge and continually expanding population. We live on a finite globe which now has been rather thoroughly explored. There are no more continents on which to continue to move as one region becomes depleted. The globe has been encircled. Malthus was simply ahead of his time.

Promotion of Myths

The media-newspapers, magazines, television, radio-report the news. But in the competitive haste to do so, sometimes they become accessory to spreading misinformation. The statements by uninformed people, politicians pursuing votes, unscrupulous promoters, or citizen groups trying to further a particular point of view may ignore realities. Too often these statements are picked up by the media and reported as fact.

Two such are cited. In a three-hour television special on energy (August 31, 1977), a CBS reporter stated in regard to how oil from shale might replace oil: "Most experts estimate that oil shale deposits like those near Rifle, Colorado, could provide more than 100-year oil supply." In another media report during the U.S. oil crisis of 1973, two young men in timber country announced that they planned to build plants using wood wastes which would be converted to gasoline and would "put the oil companies out of business." Subsequently in audiences at lectures I was giving, these two statements about alternative fuel supplies were brought up as genuine possibilities. Bartlett cites the CBS oil shale television program and convincingly points out that because the exponential factor of growth in use had been ignored, the resource could not possibly supply U.S. oil needs for 100 years.(3) Furthermore, at the time the CBS statement was made there was no evidence, just as there still is no evidence, that shale oil could replace conventional oil to any significant degree or that it could be produced at a net energy profit.

The statement was totally unrealistic, but with the 1973 oil crisis still fresh in mind, the program served to lull the public into a false sense of oil security. People like programs and statements which make them feel comfortable.

In the second situation, oil from wood wastes, very simple calculations would have shown that the volumes of wood waste available would not be even remotely sufficient to supply the raw material to provide any significant amount of gasoline in terms of U.S. consumption. The reporter on that story could have asked for some statistical data to back up the claims which he was about to print, and it would have made him a much better reporter for it.

It is perhaps too much to ask the media to thoroughly examine facts behind such statements. But there should be at least some minimal effort to do so because there is an unfortunate tendency for people not to critically read what is in the papers, or thoughtfully examine what television and radio brings them. Most do not have the background to make critical examinations. In the case of broad sweeping statements on things so vital as energy supplies, the media could at least quite quickly get a second opinion and present that also, which would give a useful balance to the reporting.

Degrees of Myths

It may be noted from the foregoing myths that there are degrees of such. Some may be regarded as marginal, and with some unforeseen technology (also to some degree a myth), the myth might become plausible. The myth of "562 billion barrels of recoverable oil" in oil shale might be regarded in this category, although at present it is definitely a myth. The myth that "We now have in our hands-actually in our libraries-the technology to feed, clothe, and supply energy to an ever-growing population for the next seven billion years"(25), and the myth that we could put our industrial facilities on the moon and that "human settlements on Mars could help to alleviate population and environmental problems"(16) plainly belong in the category of the absurd.

It is distressing to see that in many instances the general public cannot differentiate between what might be in the faint realm of possibility, from the absurd and utterly impossible. Sommers has commented on this stating in regard to our educational system that,

"...many students now graduate from college knowing little or nothing about math or science, thus creating a void into which 'flow negative and bizarre views.'...A consensus emerged at a conference of over 200 scientists, physicians, and humanists: Scientists must speak up against the popular manifestations of irrationalism."(26) Sommers adds, "Harvard Prof. Holton has noted that parascience and pseudo-science 'became a time bomb waiting to explode' when incorporated into political movements...A scandalously inadequate system of science education and diminished public regard for clear thinking and objective truth are just early casualties." (26)

If society is to survive, reason and clear recognition of reality must prevail, and plans made on that basis. Part of education should be directed toward that important end. The political leadership especially must be able to correctly differentiate between the possible and the absurd. This is particularly important when it comes to decisions relative to the foundations of civilization-the energy and mineral resources upon which everything else depends.

Conclusions

It has been said that "optimists have more fun in life, but pessimists may be right." Hardin has aptly noted, "If the reception of The Limits to Growth and The Global 2000 Report taught us nothing else it should have taught us that the Greeks were right. In the public relations game only optimism." Hardin quotes Teiresias in Euripides' The Phoenician Woman, "A man's a fool to use the prophet's trade. For if he happens to bring bitter news he's hated by the man for whom he works."(15) Hardin might have further noted that in political elections which are the quintessence of a public relations game, the same applies.

Regardless of the popularity of optimism over realism, the wisest route for humanity would be that plans and decisions be based on today's scientific and technological realities and reasonably visible resources, rather than on hopes for things which may never arrive. Optimism is vital in looking toward the future. One must be optimistic as a basis for making an effort. But optimism should be tempered with facts. The media and government leaders should try to learn the facts, and then have the courage to state them. Campaigns for public of office should not lead the citizenry into false hopes. As civilization proceeds, it will be much more convenient and less disruptive to be pleasantly surprised along the way than unpleasantly surprised. Myths must be replaced by reality on which intelligent decisions are made.

"Facts do not cease to exist because they are ignored."

-- Aldous Huxley

BIBLIOGRAPHY

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